It’s common for dental teams to set targets like “30 new patients a month." But where does that number actually come from? Too often, that goal is based more on hope than data. If you want your growth strategy to be sustainable, you need to start by asking: How many patients are you losing each month, and how many do you need to gain in order to grow?
To unpack this, we spoke with Jody Arrowsmith, founder of Dynamic Dental Scheduling and a former practice manager. Jody now coaches dental teams on how to get the most from their schedule, improve production, and create a smoother experience for both teams and patients.
Step 1: Start With Your Attrition Rate
Before you can grow, you need to know how many patients are walking out the back door. Even the best-run practices see patient loss due to life events like relocation, insurance changes, cost concerns, or lack of follow-through on treatment plans.
This loss, known as attrition, often flies under the radar. You may feel fully booked, but if your numbers don’t reflect long-term stability, you could be treading water or even shrinking without realizing it. That’s why tracking attrition is essential. It gives you the baseline you need to understand how many new patients it takes just to stay even, let alone grow.
Two Ways to Estimate Attrition:
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Quick Check: Run a report of active patients seen over the past 12 months, then compare it to the same report from the previous year. The difference between those two figures will give you your net gain or loss.
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Deeper Dive: Use your practice management software (like Dentrix, Open Dental, or Eaglesoft) to identify patients who came in 12–24 months ago but haven’t returned in the last year. This method isolates true attrition and provides a more accurate picture—especially helpful if you’re evaluating your marketing ROI.
Say you discover that your practice consistently loses about 10 patients per month. That number becomes your replacement benchmark—the minimum you’ll need to bring in just to hold steady.
What’s a Normal Attrition Rate?
Seeing the numbers clearly can be eye-opening. It might even feel discouraging at first, but knowing your attrition rate is empowering. Most practices hover around a 10% annual attrition rate, which is considered typical. If you’re in that ballpark, you’re doing fine. But if your rate is significantly higher, it may point to larger issues worth exploring.
Certain events can trigger predictable patient drop-off. Switching insurance networks, moving to a fee-for-service model, or a change in ownership, for example. If changes like these are coming, you may want to set more aggressive new patient goals in advance to stay ahead of the curve.
On the flip side, extremely low attrition combined with strong new patient growth can backfire if it overwhelms your team or makes scheduling too tight. A long wait for appointments can lead to no-shows, delays in care, or even more attrition. The bottom line: understanding attrition helps you stay balanced as you grow.
Step 2: Replace Your Losses, Then Plan for Growth
Once you’ve figured out how many patients you lose each month, you can determine how many you need to bring in to not just break even, but move forward.
Let’s say you’re losing 20 patients each month. To grow, you’ll need 21 or more new patients every month. But how many new patients does it take to meet your production goals? That’s where patient value comes in.
The industry benchmark for production is about $1.5 million per full-time dentist annually. So if you have two full-time dentists, your practice should be aiming for around $3 million in production per year. Falling short? You’ll need to calculate how many more patients it would take to close the gap.
Estimating Patient Value
There are a few approaches to assigning a dollar value to a new patient, depending on how precise you want to get:
- Fast Estimate: Annual Average Patient Value
Divide your total production for the past year by the number of active patients. This gives you an average value per patient, but keep in mind it blends long-term and one-time patients.
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More Accurate: New Patient Value
Look specifically at treatment completed and scheduled for new patients in the past year. Divide total production from these patients by the number of new patients to get a focused value.
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Conservative: Hygiene-Only Value
Want to play it safe? Assume each new patient generates $1,000 per year (based on a new patient visit and two cleanings at ~$500 each). This estimate doesn’t factor in additional treatment needs but keeps your projections cautious.
If you’re aiming to boost revenue by $100,000 and you use the conservative estimate of $1,000 per new patient, that’s 100 new patients, or roughly 8–9 per month. If your more accurate estimate is $2,500 per patient, then you’d only need about 40 new patients (or 3–4 per month) to hit that same target.
But don’t forget to add your attrition replacement on top of that. If you’re losing 120 patients annually and need 100 more to grow, your total new patient goal becomes 220 for the year.
Step 3: Factor in the Future
Once you’ve calculated the baseline, take a moment to look ahead. Are there changes coming that will increase your need for new patients?
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Planning to Hire?
Adding a doctor or expanding hygiene hours means you’ll need more patients to keep those schedules full. Divide the expected new production by your average patient value to get your new target.
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Investing in Tech or Facilities?
Equipment upgrades, office expansion, or software investments all come with financial implications. Your new patient goals should reflect any additional revenue needed to offset those costs.
Use your current goals as the “floor," then build upward if your vision includes growth.
Step 4: Build a Strategy to Hit Your Targets
Knowing how many new patients you need is step one. The next step is building a marketing plan that helps you reach those numbers month after month. That means leveraging multiple channels to attract the right patients, build trust, and support conversions.
Here’s where to start:
- Refresh Your Website
Your website is your digital front door. Make sure it’s modern, fast, mobile-optimized, and communicates your services clearly. 61% of patients compare multiple practice sites before making a decision—yours needs to shine.
- Get Found Online
SEO and paid ads help your practice show up for high-intent searches like “emergency dentist,” “Invisalign near me,” or “dental implants.” Over 77% of patients use search engines to find their next provider. Don’t miss the chance to show up.
- Earn and Manage Reviews
Your online reputation influences nearly every patient’s decision. Collect reviews regularly and respond to both praise and concerns. 94% of patients say reviews impact their choice of provider.
- Stay Active on Social Media
Social content builds familiarity and helps patients feel connected to your team. It also reinforces your brand and keeps you top of mind.
- Share Helpful Content
Blog posts, videos, and downloadable guides educate your patients and help them feel confident about their treatment decisions. That trust turns curiosity into appointments.
Let’s Hit Those Goals Together
Whether you’re just looking to maintain your current schedule or aiming for your next big growth milestone, knowing your numbers is key. And so is having a partner who can turn those numbers into action.
At Patientli, we help dental practices grow through smart digital marketing strategies, branded websites, SEO, social media, and content that builds real trust.
Ready to start building momentum? Visit www.patient.li to learn more about our services and view pricing.